Climate Forecasting at CCSR
F4H's early warning work integrates operational climate forecasts from the Center for Climate Systems Research (CCSR), which sustains the 30-year operational forecasting legacy of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), now transitioning to CCSR. These forecast products serve governments, humanitarian agencies, and agricultural planners globally.
Bridging the Predictability Gap
The critical gap between weather forecasts (issued days ahead) and seasonal predictions (issued months ahead) limits disaster preparedness and effective resource management. Our subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting research, led by Dr. Andrew Robertson, bridges this "predictability desert" with weeks-to-seasons-ahead forecasts of temperature, precipitation, and extreme events.
Routine Forecast Products
Three complementary forecast products are updated regularly and freely available worldwide:
ENSO Forecast — Monthly discussion of El Niño, La Niña, and Southern Oscillation status, with multi-model probabilistic forecasts for the next nine months. Updated on the 19th of each month. Go to ENSO Forecast →
Seasonal Climate Forecast — Global probabilistic outlook maps of precipitation and temperature for the next six months, based on re-calibrated NOAA North American Multi-Model Ensemble Project (NMME) output. Updated on the 15th of each month. Go to Seasonal Forecast →
Subseasonal Climate Forecast — Global probabilistic weekly and biweekly maps of precipitation and temperature for the next four weeks, based on re-calibrated output from NOAA Subseasonal Consortium Project (SubC) models. Updated every Friday. Go to Subseasonal Forecast →
Quarterly Briefings presenting ENSO and Seasonal Climate Forecasts are held in-person at CCSR and online via Zoom. Recordings available on Vimeo | Slide decks archived at IRI
Infrastructure and Impact
We maintain a comprehensive S2S forecast infrastructure—over 60 terabytes of forecast data freely available to researchers and decision-makers worldwide, including multi-model ensemble forecasts, verification datasets, and tools for interpreting forecast skill and uncertainty.
These forecasts enable proactive decision-making: humanitarian organizations position relief supplies before disasters strike, farmers adjust planting schedules based on rainfall predictions, water managers optimize reservoir operations, and health systems prepare for heat waves. We work directly with meteorological agencies and extension services to translate forecasts into local decision contexts, supporting applications from agricultural planning to disaster risk reduction across Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
Subscribe to IRI mailing lists for forecast announcements.
Contact Dr. M. Azhar Ehsan (ENSO and Seasonal forecasts) or Dr. Andrew Robertson (Subseasonal forecasts) with questions.
